These are things I currently believe. Some I hold loosely, some tightly. All are subject to revision.

Inspired by Buster Benson’s belief codex. Everyone should have one.

On Knowledge

  • Most of what I believe is probably wrong. I just don’t know which parts yet.
  • The best way to understand something is to try to explain it. Writing is thinking.
  • Reading widely beats reading deeply, until it doesn’t. Then you need to go deep.
  • Experts are usually right about their domain and wrong about everything else.
  • The curse of knowledge is real. Once you understand something, you forget what it was like not to understand it. This makes teaching hard and empathy harder.

On Science

  • Science is the best tool we have for understanding reality. Not perfect, but nothing else comes close. (95% confidence)
  • The scientific method is a cure for self-deception. We’re all fooling ourselves constantly. Experiments are how we stop.
  • Replication matters more than novelty. Most “breakthrough” findings don’t replicate. Be skeptical of headlines.
  • Uncertainty is honesty. Confidence intervals aren’t weakness; they’re intellectual integrity.
  • Evolution is the most important idea in biology. Maybe the most important idea, period. (98% confidence)

On Technology

  • Code is crystallized thought. The quality of the code reflects the quality of the thinking.
  • Most technology problems are people problems in disguise. (85% confidence)
  • AI will change everything. I don’t know how. Neither does anyone else. (95% confidence it will be as transformative as the internet by 2035)
  • Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. And the hardest thing to achieve.

On Work

  • Consistency beats intensity. Every time.
  • Your environment shapes your behavior more than your willpower.
  • The best work comes from intrinsic motivation. External rewards corrupt.
  • Meetings are where work goes to die. Protect your time ruthlessly.

On Thinking

  • Strong opinions, loosely held is the right stance.
  • You don’t know what you think until you try to articulate it.
  • Most decisions are reversible. Act accordingly.
  • Analysis paralysis is fear wearing a smart-person costume.

On Living

  • Health is the foundation. Everything else sits on top.
  • Relationships matter more than achievements. Easy to forget. Important to remember.
  • Boredom is a feature, not a bug. It’s where ideas come from.
  • Most anxiety is about the future. Staying present helps.

On People & Psychology

  • Everyone is the hero of their own story. Including the people you disagree with.
  • Assume good faith until proven otherwise.
  • People rarely change. But when they do, it’s usually because they wanted to.
  • You become the average of the people you spend time with. Choose carefully.
  • We’re all running on buggy wetware. Cognitive biases aren’t exceptions; they’re the default mode.
  • Motivated reasoning is the norm. We decide first, rationalize second. Knowing this helps (a little).
  • Incentives explain most behavior. “Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome.”

On Geopolitics & Power

  • Geography is destiny. Mountains, rivers, ports: they shape nations more than ideologies.
  • Institutions matter more than individuals. Good systems survive bad leaders. Bad systems corrupt good ones.
  • Power abhors a vacuum. Someone will always fill it. Better to understand who than to pretend power doesn’t exist.
  • Technology reshapes geopolitics. Semiconductors are the new oil. Data is the new territory.
  • History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. Most “new” conflicts are old patterns with new actors.

On Epistemics

  • Bayesian reasoning is the correct framework for updating beliefs, even if we can’t do it perfectly in practice. (85% confidence)
  • Most disagreements are about definitions, not substance. Taboo the words and half the disagreements dissolve.
  • Prediction markets are underused as epistemic tools. They aggregate information better than committees, polls, or expert panels. (80% confidence)
  • Calibration is a learnable skill. Most people are systematically overconfident. Tracking predictions and getting feedback can fix this.
  • Intellectual honesty requires tracking your track record. It’s easy to remember your hits and forget your misses. Written records prevent revisionist history.
  • The best epistemic practice is seeking disconfirmation. Finding evidence for what you already believe is trivially easy and nearly useless.

On Philosophy

  • Life has no inherent meaning. This is liberating, not depressing. (75% confidence)
  • Suffering is inevitable. Meaning is constructed.
  • Focus on what you control. Everything else is noise. The Stoics got this right.
  • The obstacle is the way. Every difficulty is training.
  • Memento mori. You will die. This isn’t morbid; it’s clarifying.
  • Truth exists, even if it’s hard to access. (80% confidence)
  • Read widely across traditions. Greeks, Nordics, Eastern, Western. Wisdom isn’t owned by any one culture.

🔄 Recent Updates

January 2026: Added beliefs on geopolitics and power after deeper reading on international relations.

Late 2025: Softened my stance on remote work absolutism. Context matters.

2024: Major philosophy section expansion after more engagement with Eastern traditions.

See the full Changelog for my complete belief evolution history.

Last updated: January 2026

If you disagree with something, tell me why. That’s how I update these.

See also: What I’m Doing Now | My Reading | Questions I’m Wrestling With | My Unpopular Opinions